Monday, July 13, 2009

New GC Rankings

So as we come upon the first rest day nine stages in i would again like to evaluate the riders vying for the glory of the Maillot Jaune (yellow jersey). This is extremely hard, because apart from the Astana Powerhouses up front it is very difficult to fill out the next spots with many young riders coming out of nowhere and showing promise and many reliable vets struggling, I know looking back on this next week a lot will be shuffled up and there will be a top 10 maybe even top 5 rider that will go unmentioned, but that is just how wild the tour has been this year, So here is my best prediction

1. Alberto Contador - we got merely a taste test of his climbing legs on stage 7 and now that he can TT this guy will tear this race open come the Alps
2. Lance Armstrong - showed he can climb like he used to and TT like he used to, thats good when you used to win Tour de France titles year in and year out 
3. Levi Liephiemer - has rode really steady thus far, don't look for many attacks, but he will nail down moves and be solid in the TT, hopefully enough so to hold on to the podium
4. Andy Schleck - Showed he can attack well on a climb but it didn't materialize in the Pyrenees, expect him to make up time in the alps, but not on the Astana boys
5. Carlos Sastre - last years winner has been waiting in the reeds thus far, everyone knows he will strike and strike hard in the Alps but i dont think he can do enough damage to make up the nearly 3 minutes he is down
Gets really tough here the rest of the guys i could really see coming in any order
6. Christian Vande Velde, definitely has cards left to play, seems like the Chicagoan has conserved energy thus far to go after the final TT and cover the big moves to come in the alps.
7. Luis-Leon Sanchez, lost some time early with the TTs but made up a lot by getting in a breakaway stage victory look for him to be there in the big climbs (only man that has beaten contador in a stage race which contador has led in 2 years)
8. Bradley Wiggans, usually known for his TTing and track abilities, wiggans has shown this year that he can climb, allowing him to hold on to his 5th overall in the Pyrenees and making him a GC threat.
9. Andreas Kloden, experienced rider who has finished on the podium twice, is great in the time trial and is a valuable part of the Astana well-oiled machine, but he showed some vulnerability on what seemed like pretty relaxed climbs this weekend
10. Cadel Evans - Poor, poor Cadel, he will almost certainly make up time in the big attacks of the alps and the final TT, but his competition has him down and will make sure not to let him back up

Honorable Mention:
Tony Martin, young rider who much like Wiggans is a TT guy who proved he can climb, clinging on to his 7th place overall and white jersey through 9 stages  
Rinaldo Nocentini - current yellow jersey wearer, i dont think he will be able to hang when the big attacks come in the Alps and certainly can't TT like the top dogs, but i got to give this guy credit for hanging in yellow for quite sometime
Roman Kreusiger - great young TT guy who stumbled a bit in the mountains, should climb better in the Alps though
Frank Schleck - will definitely attack on the upcoming climbs, but his lack of TT ability and his desire to aid his brother to a podium spot make cost him some positions in the GC

For Reference here is how the top 20 GC look after 9 stages:
  • 1. Rinaldo Nocentini Ag2r-La Mondiale in 34:24:21
  • 2. Alberto Contador Astana in 34:24:27
  • 3. Lance Armstrong Astana in 34:24:29 at 00:08
  • 4. Levi Leipheimer Astana in 34:25:00 at 00:39
  • 5. Bradley Wiggins Garmin - Slipstream in 34:25:07 at 00:46
  • 6. Andréas KlÖden Astana in 34:25:15 at 00:54
  • 7. Tony Martin Team Columbia - Htc in 34:25:21 at 01:00
  • 8. Christian Vande Velde Garmin - Slipstream in 34:25:45 at 01:24
  • 9. Andy Schleck Team Saxo Bank in 34:26:10 at 01:49
  • 10. Vincenzo Nibali Liquigas in 34:26:15 at 01:54
  • 11. Luis-leon Sanchez Caisse D’epargne in 34:26:37 at 02:16
  • 12. Maxime Monfort Team Columbia - Htc in 34:26:42 at 02:21
  • 13. Frank Schleck Team Saxo Bank in 34:26:46 at 02:25
  • 14. Roman Kreuziger Liquigas in 34:27:01 at 02:40
  • 15. Vladimir Efimkin Ag2r-La Mondiale in 34:27:06 at 02:45
  • 16. Carlos Sastre Cervelo Test Team in 34:27:13 at 02:52
  • 17. Mikel Astarloza Euskaltel - Euskadi in 34:27:23 at 03:02
  • 18. Cadel Evans Silence - Lotto in 34:27:28 at 03:07
  • 19. Kim Kirchen Team Columbia - Htc in 34:27:37 at 03:16
  • 20. Vladimir Karpets Team Katusha in 34:28:10 at 03:49

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