Stage 19, Preview of Ventoux

The final transition stage turned out to be quite the thriller but not as most expected. Everything looked to be growing to script as an early break swelled to 20 riders, sprinkled with great stage riders like Cadel Evans, Luis Leon Sanchez, Kim Kirchen, Nicolas Rouche, Syslvian Chavanel, and Daniele Bannati. As the Astana and the Saxo Bank squad sat back to gear-up for the ascent up Mont Ventoux tomorrow a Rabobank took to making the pace on the front of the peloton. The well known Dutch team, that has been surprisingly quiet in this years tour pulled back the most of the strong break by the base of the late cat 2 and then reeled the late attackers in by the summit. The pace by Rabobank thinned the peloton over the climb, but the big sprinters of Hushovd, Farrar, and even Cavendish helped by his teammates were still in contact. Two other riders attacked at the end of the climb, but knowing there man Cavendish was there, columbia got on the front and brought these two men back with 2k to go from the finish. George Hincapie was now on the front now trying to setup the unlikely field sprint on the uphill finish for Cavendish. Columbia did not have their big lead out train ready and only had Hincapie and strongman Tony Martin to leadout Cavendish, with the Manxman's favorite leadout man Mark Renshaw as casualty of the climb. Hincapie relinquished his duties to martin with just under a k to go and Martin drove Cav to within 400 meters, but with the likes of Hushovd, Milram's Benard Ciolek, and Farrar in his slipstream the Manx Missile would have to do something very special to pull out the W from this far out. But that exactly what he did, with the worlds best breathing down his neck and on a slight incline showed that lighting strike faster than thunder, never letting his Norwegian rival get around him and flying to his 5th stage win. An incredible win for Cavendish on a day many believed he would have little chance. This win just shows that if Cav is sitting in the peloton with as little as 2 teammates with a K to go he is going to win, no sprinter has ridden with that kind of dominance in this decade. With the win Cavendish gobbled up 35 more points but only gained 5 on Hushovd who held on to 2nd and still leads the race for green comfortably. Even if Cav wins in Paris Hushovd only need to finish in the top 10 to hold of the Manxman, something he should have no problem with. Despite the surprising prevail of the peloton today there was a minor shake up in the GC as the disorganized field sprint cut a split in the peloton coming up to the line. Lance Armstrong was able to hold onto to sprinters and stay at the front, gaining a likely unsubstantial but welcomed 4 seconds on his rivals, all coming in with the rest of the peloton right behind.

If you have not been watching and only reading this blog to keep up with the tour please take note, DO NOT miss tomorrow's coverage of Mont Ventoux on Versus. I will guarantee the stage will be absolutely nuts on the years final ascent, this climb is so hard someone died on it once, yeah its gonna be off the hook.  And you know that the excitement will be amplified 200x by Phil Liggett and Paul Sherwin's commentery. The brit in the booth will be dropping one liners like riders off the peloton, similes that capture the pain and beauty that is the tour de france.  

Now to look at the stage. Its 144k of rolling hills featuring 3 cat 3s and a cat 4 before the riders hit the base of the Mont. Here that peloton should be mainly intact. Likely some brave riders in an early breakaway will meet their fate on Ventoux a few minutes early. The climb will be over 20k long and have a gradient of 7% with some pitches much steeper. I look for Saxo Bank to be on the front early to launch attacks from Frank and Andy Schleck in an attempt to isolate Alberto Contador, to if not make up the unlikely 4 four minutes on the spaniard to at least try and show that he is mortal. Despite their efforts Contador will probably hang around and throw in some attacks of his own in the final 3k to try to take home one more stage victory to go along with his yellow jersey. The day will be a real test for lance armstrong, who despite that fact that he has shown solid climbing legs has not been able to successfully attack against the best in this year's tour. I look for him to ride with pride tomorrow, no longer babysitting on the wheels of Contador's rivals but riding for the win, to try to add some hardware to his podium finish. Though im cheering for Wiggo to move up from 4th, it will be tough for Bradley Wiggans to make up time on Armstrong and hold off older schleck and kloden to try and grab a podium spot, but assuredly Vande Velde and Zebriskie will do their best to take care of him. Either way it should be a great day, so sit back and enjoy the tour's final fireworks.

Stage 18 ITT, 19 preview

Well the final individual time trial was a bit different this year. Coming before the final mountain stage there are still some questions on how the GC competition will shape up. After being pushed around by the schlecks yesterday, the old school TTers of Armstrong Kloden and Wiggans had the opportunity to get some major revenge on the luxembourgers over the 40k today and ride themselves back into spots on the podium. The early best time on the day was set by none other than world time trial champion and week one race leader, Fabian Cancellara. Though Cancellara had a chance at the stage win, the real focus came on the final 6 riders and how the day would shuffle up the top contenders. Wiggans was first to go off, and had the best time through the first and third checks on the road, but would fade a bit over the last half to finish 6th on the stage, with an overall solid performance. Kloden just down the road also rode solidly to finish in 9th, but conceded 11 seconds to the brit, sliding Wiggans into 5th overall by a mere 2 seconds. Then it was Armstrong's turn to stop the clock, though he did give 47 seconds to Wiggans Armstrong hung tough to maintain his 4th position and finish in 16th, not bad for an old man but he certainly didnt put on the show he used to in the final TTs in his great day of yore. But these 3 men would all be given a gift of GC spot by the next man on the road, Frank Schleck. Frank is not known for his TT skills and showed why, finishing a sorry 35th and giving up 2:34, transplanting him from 3rd back to 6th overall. Little brother Andy kept the family respectable by giving up only 1:45 in 21st place, maintaining his 2nd position. The day leaves some big questions left to be answered about the podium on Mt. Ventoux, as Andy is 1:14 armstrong's better and there is only a 34 second spread between the texan and Frank Schleck now sitting sixth, with wiggans and Kloden respectively 4th and 5th. Though the final podium spots will be decided on the penultimate ascent, the question of who would win this years tour was emphatically answered today. Though his superiority was hardly questioned coming into the day, Alberto Contador added and exclamation point, setting best times by 15-20 seconds on each of the courses time checks and then hanging on over the last 12k to dethrone Cancellara's time at the finish by 3 seconds to claim his 2nd stage victory. Contador lengthened his lead to an insurmountable 4:11 over Schleck in 2nd. Contador has shown he is far and away the world's best cyclist, he can climb better than anyone and can TT as good or better than the best, barring the largest collapse in the history of sport this man will adorn yellow on the Champs Elysees.

Top ten GC with 3 stages to go:

• 1. Alberto Contador Astana in 73:15:39
• 2. Andy Schleck Team Saxo Bank in 73:19:50 at 4:11
• 3. Lance Armstrong Astana in 73:21:04 at 05:25
• 4. Bradley Wiggins Garmin - Slipstream in 73:21:15 at 05:36
• 5. Andréas KlÖden Astana in 73:21:17 at 05:38
• 6. Frank Schleck Team Saxo Bank in 73:21:38 at 05:59
• 7. Vincenzo Nibali Liquigas in 73:22:54 at 07:15
• 8. Christian Vande Velde Garmin - Slipstream in 73:25:47 at 10:08
• 9. Mikel Astarloza Euskaltel - Euskadi in 73:28:17 at 12:38
• 10. Christophe Le Mevel Francaise Des Jeux in 73:28:20 at 12:41

Tomorrow is the tour's last transition stage, but it is not one that the sprinters will look forward to. The stage is pretty flat until a late cat 2 will offer refuge to a breakaway likely full of riders trying to make a last brave effort for a stage victory. As for the 6 that have distanced themselves in the GC, expect them to try and recharge for saturday's challenge up Ventoux. Also look for the Green Jersey to be solidified by Thor Hushovd tomorrow. The Norwegian already has the competition wrapped up with a 30 point cushion, but with the late climb Thor is likely to get more points in the peloton's sprint while Cavendish will be left behind. Should be fun tomorrow because a lot of domestiques will be going for stage wins after hard efforts for their teams throughout the tour.

Final Week, Stage 17 Recap, 18 preview

Readers, 

sorry for the lack of material lately, i was out of town and very busy this weekend and during the week i update this blog at work, and believe it or not sometimes my job actually requires me to do things outside of writing my extensive thoughts about the tour de france. So lets recap what i missed. Saturday - George misses out on yellow by 5 seconds and throws a fit, Ivanov FTW. Sunday - Alps start, Contador goes no one can match, taking names and yellow. Monday - rest day. Tuesday - nothing really happens all big moves are covered, Astarloza of Eskadel-Eskadi has an emotional stage win and jens voigt crashes out. 

Today was the huge and final alpine stage, barring mt. ventoux coming on saturday. The day featured two cat 1s to start a cat 2 for kicks and then 2 more greuling cat 1s before a 15k downhill run in. The day started in exciting fashion when none other than points leader and sprinter thor hushovd went on a solo break and held it over 2 category 1 climbs. This move allowed him to pick up the 2 intermidiate sprints on the road and giving him a 30 point cushion over cavendish and pretty much solidifying his green jersey through Paris. I should also point out that Franco Pellizoti pretty much locked up a rather lulled king of the mountains classification this year, stanging points in the top of the first 3 climbs. Anyway, the first serious attacks of the day after hushovd's display of valor was washed away, came from 2 men hoping to vault themselves way up the GC, after all they did finish 1-2 last year. Cadel Evans and Carlos Sastre attacked and tried to make up time with some other small names that came for the ride. But today wasnt their day and its proving not to be their tour either as both seem out of contention for yellow now (especially evans who died on the last 2 climbs to lose 29 minutes on the day). These men were reeled in by the peloton, which had been thinned out by a strong group of Saxo Bank riders who pushed the pace all day. The Saxo domestiques of Cancellara and the Sorensens set up a launch pad for their GC hopefuls, the Schleck brother on the final 2 climbs. On the second cat 1 from the finish the schlecks would wait no longer, as the elder frank attacked to thin out the group to only the big names of Armstrong, Contador, Kloden, Wiggans, Nibali, his brother Andy and a surprisingly resiliant Christian Vande Velde who got back to the group with help from dave zebriske after falling off schleck's acceleration. But after frank had thinned things out it was Andy's turn, unleashing a violent acceleration up the mountain still 30k from the finish and cutting the group to only race leader Contador and his trusty sidekick kloden. Left behind for only moments, older brother frank quickly unlached from the armstrong, wiggans, nibali, VDV group to catch the 3 leaders up the mountain. After a short descent these groups remained the same up the final cat 1 of the day the Col de la Columbiere. Half way up the final climb after having brilliantly served wiggans as a teammate, christian cracked, leaving the brit from slipstream with the newfound climbing legs to fend for himself. Meanwhile a minute and a half up the road, after having made the schleck brothers who were significantly behind in the GC standings do the work for over half the climb, Contador attacked looking to get away and steal his second stage victory. Though his dominance is still unquestioned, his attack proved a mistake and showed once again he rides on his own accord, for while the schlecks quickly got back on his wheel, contador had dropped his final teammate, kloden. This gave the schlecks an oppurtunity to put big time in their opponents for a podium position, putting the pedal to the metal (no pun intended) and driving to the finish with a much too strong contador in tow. Frank took the victory, with the tours young faces, the Schlecks and Contador, sweeping the top 3 positions. But the fireworks in the final kilometers came from an old texan who, flew away from wiggans on the final kilometer of the climb. though the brave young italian climber, nibali, hung tough, armstrong's move allowed the tandom to catch a cashed-out kloden on the descent. At the end of the day the brothers from Luxembourg had catapulted themselves into podium spots (andy-2nd, frank-3rd) but despite their aggressive moves could not shake the man who is surely the strongest in the race for the maillot juane, Alberto Contador. The schlecks remain 2:26 and 3:25 back on contador, who ended up lengthening his lead on everyone else. Lance fell to 4th at 3:55, Kloden 5th at 4:44, Wiggans 6th 4:53 and Nibali the last man who has a legit chance at he podium clings to 7th 5:09 off the leader. Finally the stage I had been waiting for, sick day, hats off to hushovd for being a man and the schlecks for not letting Astana slowly sufficate the GC.

Looking ahead, tomorrow is another desicive day, the final individaul time trial. Dont look for the schlecks to be staying in their positions for a podium party as they, especially frank, are weak by any means in the TT. Look for the strong GC guys like Contador, Kloden, Armstrong, VDV and wiggans especially to be up there, as even TT specialists like Cancellara and zebriskie will likely be tired from their domestique work the last 3 stages. While it will be hard for him to nail back the minute and a half to andy, look for lance to get back into 3rd tomorrow passing frank schleck, only 30 seconds ahead of him. Kloden and Wiggans who are both excellent in the TT and will need to show their skills tomorrow as they need a duanting minute and a half to even be in contention come ventoux. Im picking Cadel evans to try and salvage his tour with a stage win tomorrow, but really anything could happen. With Contador still solid as a rock i look for the GC to look like this going into mt. ventoux

1. Contador

2. A. Schleck, 3:20

3. Armstrong, 3:50

4. Kloden, 4:30

5. Wiggans, 4:31

6. F. Schleck, 5:00

7. Nibali, 6:10

8. Vande Velde, 8:00

 

Rainy Stage 13 Recap, 14 Preview

Well there was a shake-up in the GC competition today but unfortunately it all started before the race had even begun. Astana and American Star Levi Leiphiemer, who was 4th in the race for yellow and seemed in line for his second podium finish, was forced to abandon the race as he suffered a broken wrist from the a crash 2k from the finish in yesterday's stage 12. Levi seemed okay, as he rode in fine after the crash but reportedly felt pain in his wrist leading him to get an x-ray and unfortunately the results were positive for a fracture. This loss did not seem to effect the Astana team much today, as they rode tempo at the front of the peloton on the climbs making sure no GC contenders could make big moves. But Levi will be surely missed by his team as a force in the alps and the TT, and his loss will certainly change the team's tactic. At 35 Levi doesnt seem like he will have too many tours left and this year he looked like he was in top form, so it is too bad to see him go down this year when he was riding so well and had such good position in the race. He had a great shot at the podium is the deepest field the tour has seen in years. But there was still a stage to be won, and though surprisingly and disappointingly the race favorites continued to play the waiting game, leaving Rinaldo Nocentini as the race figurehead, two big name classics riders who were well down in the GC standing were able to form a healthy breakaway on the category 1 climb just over half way into the 200 kilometer stage. Heinrich Haussler of the Cervelo Test Team and Quickstep's Sylvain Chavanel were able to brake off  on this rainy day in eastern france to form a quick 6 minute gap on the climb. But a strong Haussler showed he would need no one else's help the rest of the day when he gapped a surprisingly weak Chavanel on the decent and rode solidly over the remaining 2 smaller climbs to finish over 7 minutes ahead of the peloton (that is a lot but he was 55 minutes down going into the day)and get the stage win for germany. 3 others on failed breaks including Chavanel trickled in before the peloton. But there was some significance to the peloton's finish today, because while Mark Cavendish mailed it in on the climbs, not surprisingly, his rival for the green jersey Thor Hushovd hung tough on the back of the peloton on the climbs and slid in for a 6th place finish in the sprint. Those valuable points reclaimed the points lead for the big norwegian but only but a mere 5 points. This race has really heated up in this last week, as Cavendish is untouchable in a field sprint but Thor has been able to mop up solid points behind him on the flats and then make up for it by picking up points on hilly stages and uphill finishes. The Green Jersey likely won't be decided until the Champs Elysees.

Look for more green jersey excitement tomorrow with a relatively flat stage that will feature 2 category 3 climbs in the middle. Though the cat 3s give at least give the breakaway a chance, but with only 2 more sprint opportunities after this, I look for team Columbia to take this stage seriously. They will again likely do the work out front to try and put the Manx Missile in position for another stage win and to take back green. But look for Hushovd to at least minimize the damage and Farrar to be up there. Mountain top finish in the Swiss Alps on Sunday cant come soon enough. 

Stage 12 Recap, 13 Preview

Stage 12 featured rolling hills as the last transitional stage across France before the riders hit the alps tomorrow. Despite 3 early "climbs" the peloton did not easily let a break get away setting a blistering pace of 48kph over the hills, actually causing a few riders to be dropped out the back of the peloton, forcing them the to abandon the tour. But finally after several failed attempts, a seven rider group was able to form a successful attack. The riders worked together to form a 6 and a half minute lead over the peloton, who knowing that none of the those in the break would be GC threats (closest was already 10 minutes back), seemed content to cruise in after the fast early pace, not taking up any serious chase and conserving energy for the climbs tomorrow. By now certain the breakaway was safe two riders, Nicki Sorensen of Saxo and Agritubel's Sylvain Calzati, attacked 20k out from the finish, but only formed  a little over 10 seconds of a gap on the chasing 5. They held this lead for near 10k but seemed doomed to be caught by the chase pack, who was reorganized and motivated by Liquigas's Franco Pellizzoti. Pellizzoti, who after coming in 2nd on the break in stage 9, desperately wanted another chance at a stage victory. With the two man break seemingly falling apart Nicki Sorenson showed he still had legs yet, attacking hard with just 5k to go and flying away from Calazati as if he was standing still. Calazati was quickly swept up by the chasers but Sorensen's acceleration proved too strong and the Dane didnt look back from there. He crossed the line an astounding 37 seconds ahead of his chasers. Great stage victory for Sorensen, who will act as a domestique for the Schleck brothers the rest of the tour. The peloton rolled in 6 minutes later, with Cav' flexing his muscles once more to pick up the 16 points that come with an 8th place finish, with Hushovd in throw to steal minimal points in 9th. GC stayed the same again, but Cadel Evans and Levi Liephiemer experienced a scare by both being part of a crash coming into the finish, luckily neither suffered serious injury and both received the same time as the peloton with the crash occurring in the last 3k. Also there was a correction on the times awarded on stage 10, as there was ruled no gap in the peloton so riders further back were not set back 15 seconds, this thankfully returns levi and Wiggans to their original GC positions of 4th and 5th respectively.

Hats off to Sorensen, and Cav for providing some transitional entertainment these last three days, but enough with the side shows, tomorrow the real face-off for the Maillot Jaune begins. Unfortunately tomorrow will be a mere taste test, as the route will return to the flats on Saturday before kicking up into the high mountains for the 3 following stages. Just to lay out the what's to come in the rest of the tour: light mountains tomorrow, sprinters stage Saturday, Big climbs as we hit the alps in stages 15-17, but they are split up with  the second rest day coming Monday, then stage 18 is the crucial final time trial, followed by a transitional stage 19 which will lead the riders to the ultimate test of manhood that is stage 20, Mt. Ventoux, a week from saturday. And finally the tour will conclude with the ceremonial parade and sprint down the Champs Elysees in Paris. Looking at tomorrow there are 5 categorized climbs, with a gauntlet of 2-1-3-2 coming in the last half. This will allow for some serious attacks on the cat 1, or at least some stringing out, and give GC hopefuls who get away the opportunity to stay away with the up and down run into the finish. Look for Cadel Evans to be on the attack tomorrow once again. Other riders behind, such as the Schlecks, Sastre and the the Slipstreams boys Wiggans and VDV may be looking to make up time as well, but expect them to pick there spots very carefully in the remaining week and a half. I look for Astana to be on the defensive until the high mountains of the Alps, but if contador is feeling good you never know for sure.

Stage 11 Recap

Well as expected the breakaway just wasn't to be today, as the 2 rider break was easily caught 5k out. As we have seen all tour, team Columbia brought the fast pace on the front early and often looking to get there man Mark Cavendish another stage win. They were challenged by Liquigas then Lampre then finally in the last k a surprisingly strong group from Milram but the experienced men from Columbia held tough to the front never relinquishing position on what proved to be a difficult inclined finish. Just like yesterday Hincapie was on the front for Columbia-HTC with around 700 to go and Mark Renshaw, the lead-out man of lead-out men, took up the pace after him with the Manx Missile, Mark Cavendish, waiting in the wings and Hushovd and Farrar hanging tough in 3rd and 4th. This would be no standard win for the Islander of Man, as Hushovd was no longer content to wait for 2nd in Cav's slipstream. The Big Norwegian drove to alongside Cavendish with 150 to go, but "the god of thunder" had gone too early this time and faded fast, leaving the job of dethroning the Tour's new king of sprints to young American Tyler Farrar. Farrar timed his attack well, coming hard to the line on the outside a performance deserving of a stage victory. But Farrar will have to once again put off a trip to the winners podium, as Cav' went to the well one more time, pulling a gear out of god-knows-where and slipping ahead of Farrar for his 4th stage win this year and his british-record tying 8th in his career. He equals Barry Hoban's British record of 8 stages wins, but while hogan won his over a period of 9 tours, Cavendish has won his 8 in only the last 2. This guy can sprint and will be dominant for a long time to come, expect him to make that record all his with a 9th stage win in the next week and a half. Also with the win Cav' picked up 35 more valuable sprint points, reassuming the responsibility of the green jersey, as Hushovd faded to a disappointing 5th. But with the fireworks of Cavendish and the consistency of Hushovd, its likely these 2 will fight for the points classification all the way to Paris. Oh and the GC remained unchanged, Nocentini has about a two-more-day lease on yellow.

Tomorrow after sprint finishes the last two days, look for a breakaway to to vying for the stage win. The will be a bit hilly, featuring 6 small categorized climbs with 3 coming close to a the finish. The terrain should allow for a well timed break to stay away. But with serious mountains coming on friday, the sprinters might want one last go for glory, before they suffer through the alps.